An Economic Analysis of Hay Harvesting and Utilization, Using a Simulation Model (Classic Reprint).cClifton C Cloud
Excerpt from An Economic Analysis of Hay Harvesting and Utilization, Using a Simulation Model
This study assessed the effect of the forage harvesting system; the date that harvest begins; the weather pattern; the method of grain feeding; and the size of herd on farm income. Simulation techniques were used to represent forage harvesting, feeding dairy cows, selling or buying forage, and output of milk. The simulation model as developed for this study was comprised of 5 computer programs written in Fortran with Format. The model was built in 3 stages: Stage I simulated mowing and harvesting of forage by date of cut and recorded the resources used to perform these operations; Stage II simulated the production of milk using the forage produced in Stage I and recorded the resources used; and Stage III economically related Stage I and Stage II and presented income and resource use statements.
A major advantage of simulation analysis with computers is the speed of analysis completion after the simulation model has been developed. The methods used are similar to those of the conventional budget techniques. The data used are the same, and the data problems are comparable, but much less time is required for the analysis.
When coefficients for the simulation analysis model were developed for forage production, quality and quantity relations as influenced by starting date of cut, milk production according to quality of forage, and labor and machinery productivity were considered. In performing the analysis, particular emphasis was placed upon the development of relation between systems of harvesting forage, quality-quantity forage production, and dairy cow milk responses to quality of forage. The analysis was carried out in 2 phases. Phase I analyzed the interactions of 6 hay harvesting systems, 3 grain feeding systems, 3 cow number options, 3 harvest starting dates, and 3 weather patterns representing wet, dry, and average conditions during the harvesting season. In Phase II, only 2 hay harvesting systems, a single grain system, and 52 weather patterns were vised. Phase I was designed to evaluate harvest systems and select the most profitable combinations. Phase II was designed to study more weather patterns to obtain variations in income for each starting date of cut as influenced by weather.
Based on available data and the analysis made for this study, there is no economic justification for beginning hay operations as early as June 1. However, substantial declines in net farm income are encountered by postponing the beginning of the hay operation to as late as June 30. These observations held for all harvesting systems analyzed. The results indicated that the optimal date, economically, to begin harvesting operations appears to be around June 15.
There were 6 machinery systems analyzed; 4 were capable of harvesting hay in one day. Of these 4 systems, the crushed, baled, and barn dried with heat, and the flail cut, flail harvest were about equal in net income; the grass silage system was not quite as profitable; and the system using heat drying was considerably less profitable. Of the two remaining systems (that rely on natural field curing) the method using a crusher was more profitable.
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